I was looking at some CDC statistics yesterday. In 1997 ~25% of the U.S. adult population smoked. In 2009 that had declined to ~21%. Not really that much of a drop, and I suspect it hasn't gone down appreciably in that past two years.
So, you essentially have the same smoking population today as you had during the Paradise experiment with zero tolerance for smoking aboard. That program fizzled within 5 years and the ship started allowing smoking in 2003.