They are not stupid enough to do a full non smoking policy. The revenue loss is just too great. You can restrict smoking but a smoker can not go 7 days (or 4 days for that matter) without being able to smoke.
They are also not going to be able to charge the $250 cleaning fee without proving the passenger was smoking in the cabin. They have this policy in place on the ships with SPA cabins (no smoking in the cabin and the $250 fee). So they already have experience with this.
My issue is if you have people smoking on the balconies, then they need to be able to provide ash trays for the balcony... The ashtrays are going to get left outside I am sure.. I think this encourages balcony smoking and throwing the buts overboard which we all know is dangerous (as seen with the Star Princess fire) I hope they have a plan to reduce this risk.
As far as the "lost" revenue, I wonder how many people really WILL cancel because of the smoking rules leading to lost revenue and then I wonder how much it costs Carnival to do the extra cleaning and washing and linen changes after a smoker leaves a cabin. I am sure it would not replace the $14 million your calculated out Cas, but I am sure that factors into the equation also.
Carnival Cruise Lines:
Fantasy 90, Celebration 95, Victory 05, Conquest 05, Spirit 6/06, Freedom 6/08, Holiday 7/08, Victory 6/09, Valor 9/09, Dream 6/10, Splendor 8/10,Conquest 8/11,Magic 11/11,Triumph 4/12,Spirit 7/12,Freedom 11/12, Triumph 2/13 - The fire cruise
NCL Dream October 2006, RCCL Mariner OTS June 2007, Celebrity Silhouette 2013